Cost-effectiveness of Accepting Kidneys From Deceased Donors With Common Cancers-A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The disparity between the demand for and supply of kidney transplants has resulted in prolonged waiting times for patients with kidney failure. A potential approach to address this shortage is to consider kidneys from donors with a history of common cancers, such as breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers. METHODS: We used a patient-level Markov model to evaluate the outcomes of accepting kidneys from deceased donors with a perceived history of breast, prostate, or colorectal cancer characterized by minimal to intermediate transmission risk. Data from the Australian transplant registry were used in this analysis. The study compared the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from the perspective of the Australian healthcare system between the proposed practice of accepting these donors and the conservative practice of declining them. The model simulated outcomes for 1500 individuals waitlisted for a deceased donor kidney transplant for a 25-y horizon. RESULTS: Under the proposed practice, when an additional 15 donors with minimal to intermediate cancer transmission risk were accepted, QALY gains ranged from 7.32 to 20.12. This translates to an approximate increase of 7 to 20 additional years of perfect health. The shift in practice also led to substantial cost savings, ranging between $1.06 and $2.3 million. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed practice of accepting kidneys from deceased donors with a history of common cancers with minimal to intermediate transmission risk offers a promising solution to bridge the gap between demand and supply. This approach likely results in QALY gains for recipients and significant cost savings for the health system.

Cost-effectiveness of Kidney Transplantation From Donors at Increased Risk of Blood-borne Virus Infection Transmission.

BACKGROUND: Demand for donor kidneys outstrips supply. Using kidneys from selected donors with an increased risk of blood-borne virus (BBV) transmission (hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus [HCV], human immunodeficiency virus) may expand the donor pool, but cost-effectiveness of this strategy is uncertain. METHODS: A Markov model was developed using real-world evidence to compare healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of accepting kidneys from deceased donors with potential increased risk of BBV transmission, because of increased risk behaviors and/or history of HCV, versus declining these kidneys. Model simulations were run over a 20-y time horizon. Parameter uncertainty was assessed through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Accepting kidneys from donors at increased risk of BBVs (2% from donors with increased-risk behaviors and 5% from donors with active or past HCV infection) incurred total costs of 311 303 Australian dollars with a gain of 8.53 QALYs. Foregoing kidneys from these donors incurred total costs of $330 517 and a gain of 8.44 QALYs. A cost-saving of $19 214 and additional 0.09 QALYs (~33 d in full health) per person would be generated compared with declining these donors. Increasing the availability of kidneys with increased risk by 15% led to further cost-savings of $57 425 and additional 0.23 QALY gains (~84 d in full health). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 10 000 iterations showed accepting kidneys from donors at increased risk led to lower costs and higher QALY gains. CONCLUSIONS: Shifting clinical practice to accept increased BBV risk donors would likely produce lower costs and higher QALYs for health systems.

Cost Effectiveness of Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Compared with Home or Clinic Blood Pressure Monitoring for Diagnosing Hypertension in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) compared with home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM) and clinic blood pressure monitoring (CBPM) in diagnosing hypertension in Australia. METHODS: A cohort-based Markov model was built from the Payer's perspective (Australian government) comparing lifetime costs and effectiveness of ABPM, HBPM and CBPM in people aged ≥ 35 years with suspected hypertension who have a CBPM between ≥ 140/90 mmHg and ≤ 180/110 mmHg using a sphygmomanometer and have not yet commenced antihypertensive treatment. The main outcome measures were incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) assessing cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and life-years (LYs) gained by ABPM versus HBPM and CBPM. Cost was measured in Australian dollars (A$). RESULTS: Over a lifetime model, ABPM had lower total costs (A$8,491) compared with HBPM (A$9,648) and CBPM (A$10,206) per person. ABPM was associated with a small but significant improvement in the quality and quantity of life for people with suspected hypertension with 12.872 QALYs and 17.449 LYs compared with 12.857 QALYs and 17.433 LYs with HBPM, and 12.850 QALYs and 17.425 LYs with CBPM. In the base-case analysis, ABPM dominated HBPM and CBPM. In scenario analyses, at 100% specificity of HBPM, ABPM no longer remained cost effective at a A$50,000/QALY threshold. However, in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, over 10,000 iterations, ABPM remained dominant. CONCLUSION: ABPM was the dominant strategy for confirming the diagnosis of hypertension among Australian adults aged ≥ 35 years old with suspected hypertension. The findings of this study are important for reimbursement decision makers to support policy change and for clinicians to make practice changes consistent with ABPM recommendations in primary care.

Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) Versus Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement for Aortic Stenosis (SAVR): A Cost-Comparison Study.

BACKGROUND: Comparative costing studies using real-world data stratified by patient case-mix, are valuable to decision makers for making reimbursement decisions of new interventions. This study evaluated real-world hospital admissions and short-term costs of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and isolated surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) for patients with aortic stenosis, stratified by the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk scores. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with a principal diagnosis of aortic stenosis who underwent isolated valve replacement at a single tertiary hospital, January 2012-December 2017. Patients were followed-up for 30 days post-procedure or until hospital discharge if index hospitalisation was greater than 30 days. Intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay (days), and costs in 2018 Australian dollars for the index procedure and 30-day follow-up were assessed. Multivariable generalised linear and two-part models with gamma distribution and log link function adjusting for Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk group and key sociodemographic characteristics were used. RESULTS: Of 488 patients, 61% males, median age 78 years (IQR 14 years), 221 (45%) received transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVI) and 267 (55%) received surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). STS risk scores were low (28%), intermediate (46%) and high (26%) for TAVI patients, and low (85%), intermediate (12%) and high (3%) for SAVR patients. When adjusted, TAVI length of stay was 57% shorter than SAVR (95% CI 31-83%, p<0.001) for intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 64% shorter (95% CI 47-81%, p<0.001) for hospital admissions. TAVI costs were 13% lower than SAVR (95% CI 4-22%, p=0.005). CONCLUSION: This data suggests short-term health care costs are lower for patients with aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI than SAVR. A further roll-out of the TAVI program in hospitals across Australia may result in savings to the health system.

Decision Trees Predicting Tumor Shrinkage for Head and Neck Cancer: Implications for Adaptive Radiotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: To develop decision trees predicting for tumor volume reduction in patients with head and neck (H&N) cancer using pretreatment clinical and pathological parameters. METHODS: Forty-eight patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the nasopharynx, oropharynx, oral cavity, or hypopharynx were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were rescanned at a median dose of 37.8 Gy and replanned to account for anatomical changes. The percentages of gross tumor volume (GTV) change from initial to rescan computed tomography (CT; %GTVΔ) were calculated. Two decision trees were generated to correlate %GTVΔ in primary and nodal volumes with 14 characteristics including age, gender, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), site, human papilloma virus (HPV) status, tumor grade, primary tumor growth pattern (endophytic/exophytic), tumor/nodal/group stages, chemotherapy regimen, and primary, nodal, and total GTV volumes in the initial CT scan. The C4.5 Decision Tree induction algorithm was implemented. RESULTS: The median %GTVΔ for primary, nodal, and total GTVs was 26.8%, 43.0%, and 31.2%, respectively. Type of chemotherapy, age, primary tumor growth pattern, site, KPS, and HPV status were the most predictive parameters for primary %GTVΔ decision tree, whereas for nodal %GTVΔ, KPS, site, age, primary tumor growth pattern, initial primary GTV, and total GTV volumes were predictive. Both decision trees had an accuracy of 88%. CONCLUSIONS: There can be significant changes in primary and nodal tumor volumes during the course of H&N chemoradiotherapy. Considering the proposed decision trees, radiation oncologists can select patients predicted to have high %GTVΔ, who would theoretically gain the most benefit from adaptive radiotherapy, in order to better use limited clinical resources.